2021 Recap - 2022 Outlook

With 2021 coming to a close, today I’d like to recap the year, and share my thoughts on what I think 2022 will bring for the Greater Moncton Real Estate Market.
So let’s first look at 2021. 
Last year, recapping 2020 and sharing my thoughts on 2021 in this video, I talked about the shortage in inventory, the effects of COVID on our local market, and the surge of out-of-province buyers relocating to our area in search of a more balanced, relaxed lifestyle. And I also spoke about expecting more of the same for 2021. 
Well, it turns out we did see more of the same this past year, only at a higher volume. 
Inventory levels remained very low, compared to the number of buyers, so the Seller’s market trend continued through the year.
If we look at residential numbers by units, there were a little over 600 more homes listed in 2021 versus 2020 which was a definite positive, but 91% of all residential listings sold. And out of the roughly 4300 homes listed in 2021, over 2700 of them sold in less than 30 days. So that gives you a pretty good idea of the speed of the market.
If you’re a stats type of person and would like in depth information, just send me a message and I’d be happy to send you a complete report.
The Seller’s market also continued pushing prices up with a 27% increase in the overall average price in the residential category.
Now looking ahead to 2022.
What do I see happening?
Well, I see more of the same. 
I do see inventory levels increasing slightly, but still not enough to supply buyer demand. Predictions are that we’ll see rising interest rates and that may help balance things, but I personally don’t think a quarter point here and a half point there will have much of an effect in the foreseeable future. 
I think we’ll continue to see prices we’ve not seen in our area. In fact, the Greater Moncton Area has been mentioned to be among the highest predicted price increases in 2022 at as much as 20%. The average expected increase nationally is around 9%. Read RE/MAX.ca's 2022 outlook here.
So if you’ve been on the fence about buying and are waiting for the market to slow down and prices to drop, I don’t see that happening. I truly believe we’ve set a new bar. 
Going back to the beginning of 2020, someone who “held off until the market cools”, buying the same house that was $250,000 back then, would have to spend approximately $400,000 to get that house today! And if predictions are right, it could be as much as $480,000 by the end of 2022.
If you’re considering selling in 2022, depending on your situation, it could be a great financial decision.If you are considering downsizing or at a stage in your life where owning a home is more work than you’d like, selling in 2022 will likely be a very successful financial decision. Especially if you have been building equity in your home for several years. CREA has a great tool called the HPI, or Home Price Index where they use historical data going back to 2005 to give you all sorts of information. According to the HPI, if you’ve owned your home for 10 to 15 years in the Greater Moncton Area, it’s value has pretty well doubled and maybe more depending on the price point, upgrades and which neighbourhood you’re in.
Check out the HPI tool.
The other scenario is if you’re selling but also buying. This is a little different. You’ll most likely sell high, certainly higher than a few years ago, but then you’ll also buy high. So it’s more of a lateral move in this case. That said, in this situation, I don’t think there’s necessarily a right or wrong time to make a move. Since you’re selling and buying, home values will affect you on both sides so the “cost of moving up” - or the difference - will remain relatively similar.
In early Fall of 2021, I did have a family who wanted to move up, so we listed their home, which, like many others, sold relatively quickly and for top dollar with multiple offers.
But we also managed to find a hidden gem that needed some very minor work to make it their own. Because of the minor work needed, and it was being sold privately, the home had been sitting on the market for a while, so we were able to negotiate a great deal. 
Because they were open to different options, they managed to take advantage of the market to sell, and still got a great deal to buy. I can’t promise this every time, but this one was definitely a success story!
That’s my 2 cents on 2021 and what I see happening in 2022.
If you have any questions, need advice on buying or selling, send me a message and I’ll be happy to answer!